Cobalt Prices Surge as Congo Tightens Export Controls

Cobalt prices have surged sharply in 2025 following decisive export control measures introduced by the Democratic Republic of Congo, the world’s largest producer of the battery metal. The spike has been most visible in cobalt hydroxide, a key intermediate product used in electric vehicle battery supply chains. As global markets adjust to tighter availability, prices have reached multi year highs, placing pressure on battery manufacturers and downstream consumers.

The DRC, which accounts for more than 70 percent of global cobalt supply, first suspended cobalt exports in February before rolling out a quota based export system in October. These policy shifts have significantly disrupted supply flows, removing an estimated 160,000 to 170,000 tonnes of cobalt units from the market during 2025. New export conditions have also increased administrative complexity, further slowing shipments and reinforcing the supply squeeze felt across Asia and Europe.

China, the largest processor and consumer of cobalt hydroxide, has been particularly affected. Payables for cobalt hydroxide delivered into China have risen to 100 percent of the cobalt metal price, an unusually high level that reflects intense competition for limited material. At the same time, cobalt metal prices have climbed to around 24 dollars per pound, up from approximately 10 dollars per pound in February. In some cases, sellers are reportedly demanding premiums above the cobalt metal benchmark, underlining the severity of the shortage.

The impact has extended beyond China, with Indonesian cobalt hydroxide payables rising to about 90 percent, compared with roughly 50 percent earlier in the year. While higher prices have improved margins for some producers, they have also begun to dampen demand. Certain buyers have been sidelined as elevated costs strain battery economics, particularly for manufacturers operating on thin margins or producing lower cost electric vehicles.

Looking ahead, supplies to Chinese electric vehicle battery makers are expected to remain constrained, with meaningful export volumes from the DRC unlikely to reach the market until February or March next year. This prolonged tightness is likely to sustain price volatility and reinforce strategic discussions around supply diversification. For Africa’s mining industry, the situation highlights the growing influence of resource rich countries such as the DRC in shaping global battery supply chains. While higher prices may boost export revenues in the long term, prolonged disruptions could accelerate investment in alternative sources, recycling, and substitution, reshaping the future role of cobalt within both African economies and the global energy transition.

Mini-Glossary

• Cobalt hydroxide: An intermediate cobalt product commonly used as feedstock for refining battery grade cobalt chemicals.
• Payables: The percentage of the benchmark metal price that a buyer pays for a concentrate or intermediate product.
• Export quotas: Government imposed limits on the volume of material that can be exported over a specific period.
• Downstream consumers: Companies that use processed materials, such as battery and electric vehicle manufacturers.
• Price volatility: Frequent and significant price fluctuations within a market.

Editor: Vural Burç ÇAKIR